Test Your Marketing Intuition: Which sweepstakes incentive drove the most leads?


This challenge comes to us from Troy O’Bryan, the Co-Founder and Chief Response Officer of Response Capture – a performance marketing company in Beaverton, Oregon. Troy is an alumnus of a Live Optimization Workshop taught by Dr. Flint McGlaughlin in Seattle.

Objective: Response Capture’s B2B client sought to improve landing page conversion rates while generating optins for ongoing communications

Goal: To gather profile information

Primary research question: Which incentive will generate the most conversions?

Approach: A/B single-factorial split test

Amazon Card

“… a chance to win one of twenty “… a chance to win one of ten
$25 Amazon gift cards…”                          $50 Amazon gift cards…”

The Results:

As we teach in our Landing Page Optimization course, the objective of Incentive is to “tip the balance” of emotional forces from the negative, in this case represented by the Friction of filling in several fields of profile information as well as by the Anxiety of submitting personal information.

There is an “ideal incentive.” Incentives must be tested to find that ideal. And that is the challenge Troy took on with the above test.

But, dear reader, we post a different challenge to you…can you use your marketing intuition to guess which incentive performed best? Remember, the cost of these offers was the same, yet the formulation of the incentive produced a conversion rate increase for Troy’s client.

Which do you think performed best?

Take a good look at these incentives and let us know which one you think performed best in the comments section. Also, let us know by how much you think it improved conversion. The marketer that chooses the correct incentive with the closest conversion rate gain guess wins…the jealousy and admiration of his or her peers.

Come back on Friday to find the conversion gain winner along with the full story behind this successful test so you can drive similar improvements with your own pages.

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  1. Chris LaChance says

    $25 incentive. There is more chance of winning, and the price difference isn’t very different than $50.

  2. Sandra Grauschopf says

    I’d guess that option number 1, with the higher number of prizes, would have the conversion rate. I’d guess a 30% conversion rate.

  3. Shanna says

    I think the 20/$25 incentive did better. More chances to win.

  4. indie_preneur says

    I’d say choice one. To me, the better % chance to win a gift card, albeit less money, makes me think this.

  5. Brad Einarsen says

    I’m going for the $50 / 10 option.

    My reasoning is that the chance of winning is incredibly small because Amazon is popular so the larger prize attracts more attention than the number of prizes. I’m going to guess a small uplift of 15%.

  6. Spencer says

    All of these explanations assume that users are rational, consciously taking risk and reward possibilities into consideration. Prospect theory shows that for losses, people tend to take big risks. With prospective wins, however, they tend to be less risky. Therefore, the 20/$25 option should provide a somewhat higher conversion rate, possibly around 15%. However, I will say that this depends on how the terms (1 of 20 or 1 of 10) were presented. If they were clearly marked, then my guess remains the same. But if they were not, then I’d guess the $50 option would drive more conversions because people will obviously go for the higher potential gain when the chances of winning are unclear.

  7. Paul Mallory says

    Incentive # 1 converting at 13%

  8. Adam Schwer says

    The least amount of stuff they have to sift through in the beginning will increase your conversion rate. I go with the $50, because it’s what slaps you first. Simply put the dollar amount is higher.

  9. wenphd says

    $50 one.

  10. Stefanie Rathjen Kelly says

    Incentive #1 I think the $25 offer is the winner. It feels worth the effort to enter if I have a 1 in 20 chance. A 1 in 10 chance doesn’t motivate me to make any effort or provide my information. I think there would be a lift of about 35%

  11. shayne catrett says

    Incentive #2.
    Consumer drive by greater $$$ value, rather than percentage of win.
    Small lift, 5-10% in conversion.

  12. Juliette Le Claire says

    Incentive 2 is more logical, but incentive 1 gives more of a chance for the public to win!

  13. Mieszko - GoalGorilla says

    incentive 2: one of then $50 cards + 30%

  14. bonfield says

    No. 2: even though the odds, are worse, the 1 of 10, reads ALOT like 1 in 10, whereas 1 of 20 seems like 5% chance to win (even though that’s not correct). Also, I’d lean to lotteries example where they demonstrate even if the odds are not in your favor, it’s worth it to chase a bigger prize. And $50 feels like it’s worth giving up personal info for.

  15. Darko says

    #2 wins in my opinion.

  16. Tim Watson says

    Incentive #2 will win. Increase of 23%

    One of ten is perceptually easier to grasp and inclination is for larger prizes. So many people do national Lotto, for massive jackpots, but almost no chance to win.

    Great quiz all the same and my number one predication is no-one can predict the performance difference. The winner will be as lucky as the person who won the Amazon $25 or $50 dollars.

  17. Sonja Gottschalk says

    Incentive #2. People don’t really care for probabilities when they participate in sweepstakes or lotteries. The price itself is more important.

  18. Brad Einarsen says

    I came back Friday, and I’ve come back Monday… and I don’t see the answer. Is it staring at me and I can’t find the link? Or is it not posted yet?

    Curious in Toronto

  19. Brad Einarsen says

    @Brad Einarsen

    Nevermind… I found it, it’s in the Trackback link. IE8 messes up the formatting at the bottom of the page…

  20. Daniel Burstein says

    That’s right Brad, you can find the full story behind this successful test on Friday’s blog post… https://www.marketingexperiments.com/blog/research-topics/response-capture-case-study.html

  21. Pat P says

    Choice 1 — 20 winners instead of 10. Improvement — maybe 10%

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